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This week: Central bank minutes, Origin Energy, and Black Friday sales

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2023-11-20

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This week, we delve into the minutes from meetings held by two central banks earlier this month. Additionally, we keep a close eye on the crucial shareholder meeting for Origin Energy in Australia, where a massive bid from Canada's Brookfield and the US-based EIG hangs in the balance. AustralianSuper's opposition to the $20 billion offer adds an element of suspense to this event, set to take place on Thursday.

The Reserve Bank's rate rise meeting minutes from two weeks ago and the US Federal Reserve's minutes from their recent meeting will be unveiled. Both of these meetings had a significant impact on global markets. We eagerly anticipate their release, as they may reveal hidden insights or policy cues beyond what we've already gleaned from post-meeting statements.

According to Shane Oliver, AMP's chief economist, we will closely examine the Fed minutes to gauge their stance on proceeding "carefully" while remaining prepared for further hikes and keeping rates high for an extended period. Moody's economists suggest that the tightening cycle may have peaked, given the trend toward target inflation and cooling job and wage growth.

On the economic data front, leading indicators for October are expected to have declined, existing home sales are likely to remain weak, and durable goods orders may retreat after a strong September rise. Business conditions PMIs for November are also projected to decrease slightly.

In terms of global data releases, Canada will reveal its October inflation data, expected to dip to around 3.3%. Japan will release its Consumer Price Inflation data, with an annual rate reading of 2.7%.

Additionally, business activity surveys for Europe, Japan, and Australia are set to be released on Thursday. The RBA's board meeting minutes will also come out, though they are not expected to offer fresh insights, given recent statements by Governor Michelle Bullock. Her participation in a panel discussion on Tuesday and a speech on Wednesday will carry more weight and potentially shed light on the RBA's tightening bias. Keep an eye out for these developments as we navigate this eventful week.

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