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Diary: Working Hard for the Money

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2023-05-14

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A week after the appearance of the 2023-24 federal budget and the health of the labour market and wages will be tested in successive days on Wednesday and Thursday.

The final monthly dump of economic data in China happens tomorrow, US retail sales data will be out tomorrow while it’s a big week for quarterly reports from major US retailers, led by Walmart.

In Australia, the post-budget debate will fade this week - there’s those important data releases on wages (Wednesday) and the labour force data for April (Thursday).

The market says the Wage price Index (WPI) will be up 0.8%, unchanged from the December quarter with the annual rate edging up to 3.5% from 3.3%.

Australia’s unemployment rate will likely tick up to 3.6% in April from 3.5% in March, though the market says it will remain at 3.5%. 25,000 new jobs are predicted for April (53,000 in March).

Moody’s economists wrote at the weekend "The labour market has proved resilient to cooling domestic demand, but this will not last. We expect the unemployment rate to drift higher over 2023 as households and businesses adjust to higher borrowing costs."

There are also March 30 results from Nufarm, Incitec Pivot and, later today, Elders. Aristocrat Leisure is also due to report this week.

China’s data for retail sales, unemployment, investment and industrial production will be released tomorrow and is likely to be light on, especially retail sales and investment.

There’s also a monthly interest rate decision later today from The People’s Bank of China.

Retail sales for April will be one of the major releases this week in the US, tied in with the quarterly reports from major retailers. Key manufacturing and housing data will be released as well with housing starts and permits data unlikely to show much of an improvement.

Industrial production data for April will be released this week, as will regional Fed surveys on manufacturing in New York and Philadelphia will provide the first read on US factory activity for May.

"There is little hope for a significant near-term rebound in manufacturing, but we look for both surveys to find a bottom and not deteriorate further this year, Moody’s wrote at the weekend.

"New data on jobless claims will be even more important to watch after initial claims jumped to 264,000 in the most recent report,” Moody’s noted, adding that "claims are clearly elevated, and a continuation of the recent trend would likely signal a rapid deceleration in monthly job gains."

US retail sales for April are forecast to rise 1.4% compared with 2.9% in March.

Quarterly reports from Walmart, Target (first and second retailers in the US), Home Depot. Macy’s, the biggest department store chain reports on Friday. Other chains, TJX Cos and Ross Stores are due to report as well, along with major tech company, Cisco.

JPMorgan, America’s biggest bank holds its annual meeting this week and it will be worth watching for expected questions about its recent rescue of First Republic and the relationship the bank and its CEO Jamie Dimon had with the late disgraced businessman Jeffery Epstein.

In Europe, there’s data on industrial production and trade data as well as the final inflation figures for April. UK employment data for the three months to March will also be issued.

Japan’s preliminary March-quarter GDP figures will be out and are likely to show 0.6% quarter-on-quarter growth. GDP was flat in the December quarter.

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