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Chinese economy in focus: Key data and global events this week

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2023-10-09

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The health of the Chinese economy is back in the spotlight this week as the country emerges from its week-long holiday break. Car sales and loan data are set to release on Wednesday, followed by crucial inflation and trade data on Friday. The third-quarter GDP and other investment, retail sales, and production data will be issued next week.

After mixed outcomes from two surveys on the economy earlier this month—one up (the official survey) and one down (the private survey)—analysts eagerly await this week's data to gain a more updated perspective.

AMP Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, predicts that Chinese inflation data for September will likely edge up to an annual rate of 0.2% year-on-year (YoY), from 0.1% YoY, with producer price deflation easing slightly to -2.4% YoY. He also forecasts that Friday's trade data is expected to show a slowing pace of falls in both exports and imports.

In the US, the focus is on September CPI inflation (Thursday), expected to slow to 0.3% month-on-month or an annual rate of 3.6% from 3.7% in August. Core CPI inflation is also likely to slow further to 4.1% YoY from 4.3%. Producer price inflation on Wednesday is expected to remain subdued.

The US third-quarter results season picks up pace with a trio of big banks releasing their figures on Friday.

Additionally, there are the minutes from the last Fed meeting on Wednesday, expected to reiterate the "high rates for longer" message.

In Australia, consumer confidence is expected to remain weak, and the NAB business survey will be closely watched for any cooling in business conditions. Both are due tomorrow. The Commonwealth Bank has its AGM on Wednesday, along with a first-quarter trading update, while CSL also holds its annual meeting on the same day, as will insurer IAG. Brambles is due to hold its meeting on Friday, and the Bank of Queensland is set to release its full-year results on Wednesday.

On a global scale, the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are taking place in Morocco this week, with the updated World Economic Outlook and the global financial stability report as major releases. Both will be closely monitored due to market unease about 2024 and the impact of high-interest rates, rising bond yields, and the high value of the US dollar.

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